Some of you may be interested to know how your predicted times for the Tortoise & Hare Races have been calculated this season. In a nutshell: the same as in previous years except for a little tweak, as summarized in the last paragraph of the following:
Predicted time based on a season’s races:
If there is 1 race for the season, use the predicted time based on that race.
If there are two races for the season, use the average of the two predicted times.
If there are three or more races for the season, then use the minimum of the following two numbers:
- The average of the predicted times.
- Fastest predicted time + 1/3 * [Slowest predicted time – Fastest predicted time]
Item 2 above handles the situation where a runner has a large difference between the fastest predicted time and the slowest predicted time and most of the predicted times are clustered around the slowest predicted time.
You can read about the entire algorithm, as written by former FCRC President Paul Patterson.