Some of you may be interested to know how your predicted times for the Tortoise & Hare Races have been calculated this season. In a nutshell: the same as in previous years except for a little tweak, as summarized in the last paragraph of the following:

Predicted time based on a season’s races:
If there is 1 race for the season, use the predicted time based on that race.
If there are two races for the season, use the average of the two predicted times.
If there are three or more races for the season, then use the minimum of the following two numbers:

1. The average of the predicted times.
2. Fastest predicted time + 1/3 * [Slowest predicted time – Fastest predicted time]

Item 2 above handles the situation where a runner has a large difference between the fastest predicted time and the slowest predicted time and most of the predicted times are clustered around the slowest predicted time.

You can read about the entire algorithm, as written by former FCRC President Paul Patterson.

Forty-two runners ran in the first Tortoise & Hare race in the new year, braving a starting temperature of a brisk 19 degrees. Connie and Paul filled in for race director Nick (who was off in Texas running an ultramarathon) and did a nice job of sending people out on the course mostly on time despite the complexities of having to figure out when each runner needed to begin. We appreciated everyone’s patience!

The results—including updated series standings—are now up. A note from Paul about the results is below.

Dear Club members,

The results for last Sunday’s T&H are on the web at http://fortcollinsrunningclub.org/results/. Some of the early runners started a little later than their staggers indicated, I noted that and adjusted the staggers, so the actual time listed in the results should be time it took to complete the course. If you have any concerns with your actual time let me know plpatterson3@earthlink.net . Thanks for everyone’s patience on race day. Complete information on how the race is conducted, staggers calculated and the points awarded is at http://fortcollinsrunningclub.org/tortoise-hare/. The regular race director Nick Clark will be back next month!

Thanks, Paul Patterson

See you at the next T&H, an 8k!

Just a reminder, the next Tortoise & Hare race is at Fossil Creek Park this Sunday, January 8, 2012. The distance is 5 kilometers (3.1 miles). The first runners start at 8:00 A.M.

Below is a course description:

Runners meet at the east parking lot for Fossil Creek Park; the entrance is on Lemay, a little over a mile south of Harmony.

The start is on the sidewalk on the west side of the parking lot. The runners proceed south along the east side of Portner Reservoir, then around the south and west side of the reservoir, heading up heading north. After crossing the entrance to the west parking lot, the runners will cross a large pedestrian bridge, then turn left (west) and use the underpass to cross the Fossil Creek Parkway. Using a combination of the sidewalk and bike path the runners will proceed west along the Fossil Creek Parkway.

The turnaround point is very close to College Ave. Runners will then turn around and go the way they came from. Outbound runners will use the sidewalk and inbound runners will use the bike lane.

Here is a map.

After the run, we’ll be meeting at the Rocky Mountain Bagelworks east location on Timberline (north of Harmony) after the run. Hope to see lots of you there as the weather looks good for early January!